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Computer Aided-Delphi
An Experimental Study of Comparing Round-Based with Real-Time Implementation of the Method
von Sabine ZipfingerThe Delphi method is a form of a written interview and belongs to the techniques of empirical social research. Principally invented as a method of future research, Linstone and Turoff characterise Delphi in a more general way as „a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem“.
Delphi was originally done as iterative approach. A newer variant called Realtime Delphi requires computerassistance instead of paper and pencil and is done roundless. Although the computer era encourages a realtime implementation, the original roundstructure is adopted in most computer-aided Delphi studies.
The goal of the experimental study was to find out, if Realtime Delphi should be preferred to round-based online Delphi. Therefore, two online Delphi studies, one of them done realtime while the other one used the common round structure, were implemented in parallel. After closing both studies their performance and results were compared.
Because the topic of both Delphi studies was the Delphi method itself, the precondition to take part as an expert was experience in using the method. The questions concerned different statements about special details and the implementation of Delphi. The anonymous answers and comments of experts from all around the world are quite interesting and provide useful information for the design and implementation of further Delphi studies.
Delphi was originally done as iterative approach. A newer variant called Realtime Delphi requires computerassistance instead of paper and pencil and is done roundless. Although the computer era encourages a realtime implementation, the original roundstructure is adopted in most computer-aided Delphi studies.
The goal of the experimental study was to find out, if Realtime Delphi should be preferred to round-based online Delphi. Therefore, two online Delphi studies, one of them done realtime while the other one used the common round structure, were implemented in parallel. After closing both studies their performance and results were compared.
Because the topic of both Delphi studies was the Delphi method itself, the precondition to take part as an expert was experience in using the method. The questions concerned different statements about special details and the implementation of Delphi. The anonymous answers and comments of experts from all around the world are quite interesting and provide useful information for the design and implementation of further Delphi studies.