Understanding Uncertainty

A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty andprobability in people's lives from an everyday perspective
From television game shows and gambling techniques to weatherforecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect ofmodern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertainand of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindleywrites in this distinctive text, „We want you to face up touncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but tounderstand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so thatyou can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than wouldhave been possible without the skill.“
Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding textexamines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introducesreaders to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that proveuncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinarylogic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the bookinsightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and usedin everyday life, especially in decision-making and science.
With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and:

* Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, itstruths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century aboutuncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face ofuncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentiethcentury * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing theright questions, or obtaining sound answers
Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts andoperations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for allstudents who have probability or statistics as part of theircourse, even at the most introductory level.