Mathematical Modeling for New Insights into Epidemics by Herd Immunity and Serotype Shift

The aim of this work is to examine, define and interpret dynamic effects on the spread of epidemics through the use of different models. This approach is heavily based on the consequent application of agent based models, which simulate the spread of a disease as a consequence of transmission from person to person, and Markov models, which are based on stochastic processes. Thanks to its structure, the former approach is able to create real effects, while the latter approach uses given transition probabilities, and hence is not able to produce feedback effects. Comparison of the modeling approaches allows analyzing the underlying dyna-mics and finding sufficiently flexible definitions for correct interpretations and valid simulations of the consequences of vaccination strategies against epidemics.